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Fuel Prices Down

Posted on August 9, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

Fuel Prices Down Amidst Global Economic Adjustments

In recent weeks, consumers and industries alike have welcomed a significant decrease in fuel prices. This decline, driven by a combination of global economic factors, has brought relief to various sectors, particularly transportation and logistics, which are heavily dependent on fuel.

Factors Contributing to the Decline:

Global Oil Supply Increase: A key factor in the recent drop in fuel prices is the increase in global oil supply. Major oil-producing countries, particularly those in the Middle East, have ramped up production. This surge in supply has outpaced demand, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices, which directly influences the cost of fuel.
Slowing Global Economic Growth: The global economy has experienced a slowdown, particularly in major economies like China and the Eurozone. This slowdown has led to reduced industrial activity, thereby decreasing the demand for oil and fuel. As demand diminishes, prices naturally follow suit.
Technological Advancements in Alternative Energy: Another contributing factor is the ongoing advancements in alternative energy sources. As renewable energy technologies become more efficient and widely adopted, the dependence on fossil fuels has started to wane. This shift has put additional pressure on fuel prices, pushing them downwards.
Geopolitical Stability: Recent geopolitical developments have also played a role in stabilizing fuel prices. In regions where conflict previously threatened oil supplies, diplomatic efforts have led to more stable production and exportation of oil, easing concerns about supply disruptions.

Impact on Consumers and Industries:

Transportation Sector: The transportation sector is one of the primary beneficiaries of the decline in fuel prices. Lower fuel costs have reduced operational expenses for airlines, shipping companies, and trucking firms, leading to potential savings that could be passed on to consumers.
Consumer Goods: With lower transportation costs, the prices of consumer goods could see a decrease, especially for products that rely heavily on logistics. This could provide a much-needed boost to consumer spending and overall economic activity.
Agriculture: The agriculture sector, which is highly dependent on fuel for machinery and transportation of goods, is also likely to benefit. Lower fuel costs can help reduce the overall cost of production, potentially leading to more competitive pricing of agricultural products.

Future Outlook:

While the current decline in fuel prices offers immediate benefits, experts caution that it may not be sustainable in the long term. Factors such as potential geopolitical tensions, environmental policies, and the unpredictable nature of global oil markets could reverse the trend. Additionally, as the global economy recovers, demand for fuel is expected to rise, which could put upward pressure on prices once again.

Conclusion:

The recent drop in fuel prices is a welcome development for both consumers and industries. However, the situation remains fluid, and it is important for stakeholders to remain vigilant and adaptable to future changes in the global economic landscape. For now, the decline provides a window of opportunity to explore more sustainable energy practices and strengthen economic resilience.

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Fuel Prices Down due to Softening Economy

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Fuel Prices Down due to Softening Economy

Posted on August 8, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

Fuel Prices Down due to Softening Economy

As the global economy shows signs of cooling, consumers are starting to see relief at the gas pump. A combination of decreased demand and economic uncertainties has led to a noticeable drop in gas prices, providing a silver lining for drivers amid otherwise challenging economic conditions.

The Economic Slowdown

Fuel Prices Down due to Softening Economy. The global economy has been facing headwinds due to various factors such as tightening monetary policies, slowing growth in key markets, and lingering impacts of geopolitical tensions. These challenges have caused a ripple effect, leading to reduced industrial activity and lower energy consumption. As industries scale back operations, the demand for oil has decreased, directly impacting gas prices.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

In addition to the slowing economy, shifts in supply and demand dynamics have also played a critical role in the recent decline in gas prices. Oil-producing nations, particularly those in OPEC+, have been carefully managing output levels to avoid oversupply. However, with demand waning, even controlled production has led to a surplus in the market, exerting downward pressure on prices.

Impact on Consumers

For consumers, lower gas prices are a welcome respite. The decline in fuel costs can reduce overall household expenses, freeing up disposable income for other needs. This reduction can be especially beneficial during times of economic uncertainty, as it provides a bit of financial relief to families and individuals.

Outlook

While the drop in gas prices is beneficial for consumers, it also signals broader economic challenges. If the economic slowdown deepens, it could lead to further reductions in energy demand, potentially pushing prices even lower. However, this scenario could also have negative implications for energy producers and economies heavily reliant on oil exports.

In conclusion, the current dip in gas prices offers temporary relief in an otherwise difficult economic climate. As the situation evolves, both consumers and producers will need to navigate the complexities of a slowing economy and its impact on the energy market.

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The Long-Predicted Recession has Failed to Materialize

Posted on June 7, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

For several years, economic analysts and commentators have been sounding alarms about an impending recession. However, despite these warnings, the anticipated economic downturn has yet to occur. This phenomenon has puzzled experts and prompted a deeper analysis of the underlying factors that have contributed to the economy’s resilience. Several key reasons can be identified for the failure of the long-predicted recession to materialize.

1. Strong Consumer Spending

One of the most significant drivers of economic growth is consumer spending. Over the past few years, consumer confidence has remained robust, bolstered by low unemployment rates, rising wages, and substantial savings accumulated during the pandemic. Even amid inflationary pressures, consumers have continued to spend, fueling demand for goods and services and keeping the economy buoyant.

2. Labor Market Resilience

The labor market has shown remarkable strength, with unemployment rates at historic lows and job creation consistently outpacing expectations. This tight labor market has led to wage growth, which, in turn, has supported consumer spending. Furthermore, many sectors have adapted to new ways of working, such as remote and hybrid models, which have enhanced productivity and efficiency.

3. Government Fiscal Policies

Government intervention through fiscal policies has played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy. Stimulus packages, unemployment benefits, and other support measures implemented during the pandemic have provided a safety net for businesses and individuals. Additionally, infrastructure investments and other government spending initiatives have spurred economic activity and job creation.

4. Monetary Policy Adaptability

Central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve in the United States, have demonstrated adaptability in their monetary policies. By carefully managing interest rates and employing quantitative easing measures, central banks have maintained liquidity in the financial system and kept borrowing costs low. This has encouraged investment and spending, preventing the economy from sliding into recession.

5. Corporate Adaptation and Innovation

Businesses have shown remarkable adaptability and innovation in response to changing economic conditions. The pandemic accelerated digital transformation across industries, leading to increased efficiency and the creation of new business models. Companies that embraced technology and adapted their operations have not only survived but thrived, contributing to overall economic stability.

6. Global Economic Dynamics

The global economy has also played a role in mitigating recession risks. Strong economic performance in major economies, such as China and the European Union, has provided a boost to global trade and investment. Moreover, global supply chain disruptions, while challenging, have led to increased domestic production and sourcing, fostering economic resilience.

7. Stock Market Performance

Despite periodic volatility, stock markets have generally performed well, reflecting investor confidence in the economy. High valuations in equity markets have supported consumer and business wealth, further reinforcing economic stability. Additionally, the availability of capital through financial markets has enabled companies to invest in growth and innovation.

8. Sectoral Shifts and Diversification

The economy has witnessed significant sectoral shifts and diversification, with growth in areas such as technology, healthcare, and renewable energy offsetting weaknesses in traditional industries. This diversification has reduced the overall economic vulnerability to sector-specific downturns, contributing to sustained growth.

Conclusion

The anticipated recession has failed to materialize due to a combination of strong consumer spending, a resilient labor market, effective government policies, adaptable monetary strategies, corporate innovation, supportive global economic dynamics, robust stock market performance, and sectoral diversification. While the future remains uncertain and potential risks persist, these factors have collectively supported the economy and prevented the long-predicted downturn. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, ongoing vigilance and adaptability will be essential to maintaining stability and growth.

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Inflation and its Impact on Food Companies

Posted on June 7, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

Food companies continue to struggle with the lingering impacts of inflation, even as general inflation rates have begun to decline. The reasons behind persistent high food prices are multifaceted, encompassing supply chain disruptions, increased production costs, and corporate profit strategies.

Despite a decrease in overall inflation, food prices remain elevated due to a combination of factors such as higher costs for labor, transportation, and raw materials. For example, the cost of energy, which surged during the COVID-19 pandemic and was further exacerbated by geopolitical events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, significantly impacted food production costs. This spike in energy prices led to increased costs for fertilizers and other agricultural inputs, driving up the prices of both processed and unprocessed foods (European Central Bank) (Northeastern Global News).

Moreover, many food companies have taken advantage of inflationary pressures to enhance their profit margins. Corporations like Tyson Foods and Kroger have reported substantial profit increases through price hikes that exceed their rising costs, suggesting a degree of price manipulation. This practice is evident in instances where companies have also engaged in significant stock buybacks and dividend increases, benefiting shareholders at the expense of consumers (Jacobin).

Consumers are acutely feeling these effects, with grocery prices remaining high and eating out becoming more expensive. For instance, food prices in supermarkets are now about 25% higher than in January 2020, which is above the overall inflation increase of 19% during the same period (Northeastern Global News). This sustained price elevation in essential goods has put a strain on household budgets, particularly impacting lower-income families.

In summary, the high food prices seen today are a result of complex and interrelated factors, including lingering supply chain issues, increased production costs, and strategic corporate behaviors aimed at maximizing profits. These elements collectively ensure that food companies, and by extension consumers, continue to bear the financial burden of past inflationary periods (Jacobin) (BNN).

Merger of Chevron and Hess – What does it mean?

Posted on May 30, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

The merger between Hess Corporation and Chevron has several significant implications for the oil and gas industry: Merger of Chevron and Hess

1. Increased Market Share and Scale

Enhanced Production Capacity: The merger will likely result in an increased combined production capacity, allowing the new entity to have a larger presence in the global oil and gas market.
Expanded Asset Portfolio: With Hess’s significant assets in areas like the Bakken Shale and offshore Guyana, Chevron will enhance its asset base, providing more diversified sources of crude oil and natural gas. Merger of Chevron and Hess

2. Operational Synergies and Cost Savings

Efficiency Gains: Mergers often lead to operational efficiencies through streamlined processes, shared technology, and better resource management.
Cost Reductions: Chevron and Hess can reduce costs through economies of scale, such as bulk purchasing of equipment and services, and consolidating administrative functions.

3. Strategic Positioning and Competitiveness

Global Reach: The merger can strengthen Chevron’s global position, particularly in high-growth areas like Guyana, which is poised to become a major oil producer.
Enhanced Competitiveness: With increased resources and capabilities, the merged entity can better compete against other major oil companies like ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP.

4. Impact on Stockholders and Investment

Stock Performance: Mergers often result in stock market reactions, with potential positive impacts on the share prices due to anticipated future growth and profitability.
Investor Confidence: A successful merger can boost investor confidence in the strategic vision and financial health of the combined company. Merger of Chevron and Hess

5. Energy Transition and ESG Considerations

Sustainability Goals: Both companies will need to align their sustainability and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) strategies. The merger provides an opportunity to enhance their commitment to reducing carbon emissions and investing in renewable energy projects.
Regulatory Scrutiny: The merger will likely be subject to regulatory approvals, including assessments of its impact on market competition and adherence to environmental regulations.

6. Industry Consolidation Trend

Market Dynamics: The merger reflects a broader trend of consolidation in the oil and gas industry, driven by the need to optimize operations, reduce costs, and adapt to market volatility.
Future Mergers: This could potentially trigger more mergers and acquisitions as companies look to bolster their market positions and resources.

7. Economic and Geopolitical Implications

Global Supply Chain: The merger can influence global supply chains and energy markets, potentially affecting oil prices and energy security.
Geopolitical Influence: By enhancing its asset base and production capabilities, the combined entity could have a greater influence on geopolitical dynamics in key oil-producing regions.

Overall, the Hess-Chevron merger is likely to have a profound impact on the oil and gas industry, shaping market dynamics, operational strategies, and future industry trends.

Fed Expresses Uncertainty About Inflation

Posted on May 23, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

Recent news reports highlight key concerns and sentiments expressed by Federal Reserve policymakers during a recent meeting. Fed Expresses Uncertainty About Inflation

Sticky Price Pressures: The persistence of inflation in certain sectors, where prices do not adjust downward easily even when economic conditions change. These sectors might include housing, healthcare, and some services where costs are less flexible.
Uncertainty: The policymakers’ uncertainty about these sticky price pressures indicates that they are facing challenges in predicting and managing inflation dynamics. This uncertainty can stem from various factors, such as supply chain disruptions, labor market tightness, or geopolitical events affecting commodity prices. Fed Expresses Uncertainty About Inflation

Fed Expresses Uncertainty About Inflation

Lack of Confidence in Achieving the 2% Inflation Goal:

Recent Data: The reference to recent data suggests that the economic indicators available at the time of the meeting were not sufficiently reassuring. These indicators likely include measures of consumer prices, producer prices, wage growth, and perhaps broader economic activity.

2% Inflation Goal: The Federal Reserve’s long-term target is to maintain inflation at around 2%, which is considered conducive to economic stability and growth. The lack of confidence in reaching this goal suggests that inflation might be running higher than desired, or that there is significant variability in inflation rates across different sectors.

Implications for Monetary Policy:

Policy Decisions: Given the uncertainty and lack of confidence, policymakers might adopt a more cautious approach. This could mean they are hesitant to either aggressively hike interest rates (which could stifle growth) or cut them (which could risk higher inflation).
Communication and Forward Guidance: The report underscores the importance of clear communication from the Fed. Policymakers need to manage expectations by conveying their concerns and the data dependency of their decisions, maintaining credibility and stability in financial markets.

Economic Context:

In summary, the minutes reveal a cautious and data-driven approach by the Federal Reserve, grappling with persistent inflationary pressures and the challenge of guiding the economy towards stable and sustainable growth. The policymakers’ uncertainty and lack of confidence in meeting the 2% inflation target underscore the complexities of the current economic environment and the delicate balance required in monetary policy decisions.

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The Pernicious Impact of Inflation on Small Businesses

Posted on May 13, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

Inflation, the persistent increase in the general price level of goods and services over time, can have far-reaching consequences on economies and societies. While its effects are often discussed in macroeconomic terms, the impact on small businesses, the backbone of many economies, is profound and often overlooked. This article delves into the pernicious effects of inflation specifically on small businesses, exploring how rising prices can disrupt operations, strain finances, and hamper growth prospects. The Pernicious Impact of Inflation on Small Businesses

Reduced Purchasing Power: One of the most immediate consequences of inflation for small businesses is the erosion of purchasing power. As prices rise across the board, the same amount of money buys fewer goods and services. For small businesses operating on tight budgets, this means they can afford fewer supplies, equipment, and other essentials, ultimately hindering their ability to operate efficiently and compete effectively in the market.
Increased Operating Costs: Inflation doesn’t just affect the prices of goods and services that small businesses purchase; it also impacts their operating costs. Essentials such as rent, utilities, and wages often rise alongside inflation, putting additional strain on already stretched budgets. Small businesses may find themselves forced to increase prices to offset these higher costs, risking losing customers in the process or absorbing the costs themselves, further squeezing profit margins.
Uncertainty and Planning Challenges: Inflation introduces uncertainty into the business environment, making it difficult for small businesses to plan for the future. Fluctuating prices make it challenging to accurately forecast expenses and revenues, leading to increased risk and reduced confidence in investment decisions. Small businesses may hesitate to expand or invest in new ventures, opting instead for cautious strategies that prioritize survival over growth.
Difficulty Accessing Credit: Inflation can also affect small businesses’ ability to access credit. Lenders may be hesitant to extend loans or lines of credit in inflationary environments due to the increased risk of default. Even if credit is available, small businesses may face higher interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and potentially unsustainable for those already struggling with rising costs and reduced profitability.
Competitive Disadvantage: Inflation can widen the gap between small businesses and larger competitors with greater resources and economies of scale. Small businesses may struggle to absorb price increases as efficiently or negotiate favorable terms with suppliers, putting them at a competitive disadvantage. Inflationary pressures can also lead to market consolidation, as larger firms with stronger financial positions capitalize on smaller competitors’ difficulties, further concentrating economic power.

The pernicious impact of inflation on small businesses cannot be overstated. From reduced purchasing power and increased operating costs to uncertainty and competitive disadvantages, inflation poses significant challenges for small businesses trying to thrive in increasingly volatile economic environments. Policymakers must consider the unique needs of small businesses when formulating inflation-fighting strategies, ensuring that measures aimed at stabilizing prices do not inadvertently exacerbate the challenges faced by those at the heart of the economy.

What CFOs are Saying about Interest Rates

Posted on May 9, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

Few metrics hold as much sway and significance as interest rates. From impacting borrowing costs to influencing investment decisions, fluctuations in interest rates can reverberate throughout the global economy. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) are key figures in navigating these dynamics, as their insights and strategies shape how businesses respond to changing interest rate environments. In this article, we delve into the perspectives of CFOs regarding the direction of interest rates, exploring their sentiments, predictions, and the implications for corporate decision-making.

Understanding the Significance of Interest Rates: Interest rates serve as a fundamental mechanism for regulating economic activity. Central banks adjust interest rates to manage inflation, stimulate economic growth, or curb excessive borrowing. For businesses, interest rates directly influence the cost of capital, impacting investment decisions, capital expenditures, and overall financial health.

Insights from CFO Surveys: Numerous surveys and studies regularly gauge the sentiments of CFOs regarding interest rate trends. These surveys provide valuable insights into how finance leaders perceive the trajectory of interest rates and the potential implications for their organizations.

Optimism Amidst Uncertainty: CFO sentiment towards interest rates often reflects broader economic outlooks. During periods of economic expansion and stability, CFOs may express confidence in a gradual increase in interest rates, signaling robust growth prospects. Conversely, economic uncertainty or recessionary concerns may lead CFOs to anticipate rate cuts or prolonged low rates to stimulate economic activity.
Impact on Financing Decisions: Interest rate forecasts significantly influence corporate financing decisions. CFOs must weigh the benefits of accessing capital at lower rates against the potential risks of rising borrowing costs. For instance, in a low-interest-rate environment, companies may pursue debt financing for expansion projects or strategic acquisitions. Conversely, rising interest rates may prompt a shift towards equity financing or tighter capital expenditure controls to manage financial risk.
Hedging Strategies and Risk Management: CFOs employ various hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of interest rate fluctuations on their organizations. Interest rate swaps, options, and other derivative instruments enable companies to lock in favorable rates or protect against adverse movements. These risk management tactics are essential for safeguarding financial stability and ensuring resilience against volatile market conditions.
Global Macroeconomic Factors: Interest rate trends are influenced by a complex interplay of global macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical events, monetary policy decisions, and inflationary pressures. CFOs must closely monitor these developments and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate evolving market dynamics and mitigate potential risks to their businesses.

In an ever-changing economic landscape, CFOs play a pivotal role in interpreting and responding to interest rate trends. By staying attuned to market signals, leveraging financial instruments, and implementing prudent risk management practices, CFOs can steer their organizations through uncertain times and capitalize on opportunities for sustainable growth and value creation. As interest rates continue to evolve, CFOs will remain vigilant, ensuring that their organizations remain agile and resilient in the face of economic uncertainty.

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Fast Food Prices on the Rise

Posted on April 29, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

In recent months, fast food aficionados have been greeted with an unwelcome surprise: their favorite quick bites are becoming increasingly expensive. The once-affordable indulgence of a fast food meal is now putting a dent in wallets across the board. This phenomenon begs the question: why are fast food prices on the rise?

Supply Chain Woes

One of the primary culprits behind the surge in fast food prices is the ongoing disruption in supply chains. From farm to table, the journey of ingredients to your favorite fast food joint involves a complex network of suppliers, distributors, and manufacturers. However, disruptions like extreme weather events, labor shortages, and transportation challenges have thrown a wrench into this intricate system.

Consider the impact of climate change on agriculture. Unpredictable weather patterns and natural disasters can decimate crops, leading to shortages and increased prices for key ingredients like wheat, corn, and potatoes – staples in many fast food offerings. Furthermore, labor shortages exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to increased wages for workers throughout the supply chain, which in turn drive up production costs.

Inflationary Pressures

Inflation, the general increase in prices over time, is another factor contributing to the uptick in fast food prices. As the cost of living rises, businesses are forced to adjust their prices to maintain profitability. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to stimulate the economy through low interest rates and monetary stimulus measures can inadvertently fuel inflationary pressures, further squeezing the margins of fast food establishments.

Menu Evolution

Another factor influencing fast food prices is the evolving nature of menus. In response to changing consumer preferences and societal trends, many fast food chains have expanded their offerings to include healthier, more sustainable options. While these menu additions may appeal to a broader customer base, they often come with higher price tags due to the use of premium ingredients and additional preparation requirements.

Navigating the New Normal

As consumers grapple with the reality of higher fast food prices, many are forced to reconsider their dining habits. Some may opt for less frequent visits to their favorite chains, while others may explore alternative dining options such as home-cooked meals or locally sourced eateries. Additionally, loyalty programs and promotional deals may become increasingly valuable as consumers seek ways to stretch their dining dollars further.

In conclusion, the rising cost of fast food is a multifaceted issue driven by supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, and evolving consumer preferences. While the days of dirt-cheap drive-thru meals may be a thing of the past, savvy consumers can still find ways to indulge in their favorite fast food treats without breaking the bank. However, it may require a bit more creativity and resourcefulness in navigating the ever-changing landscape of the fast food industry.

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The Consequences of Betting Against the Dollar in 2024

Posted on April 22, 2024 by Chris Lehnes

Betting against the dollar in favor of other currencies can have several consequences, especially in 2024 when global economic dynamics are in flux. Here are some potential consequences: The Consequences of Betting Against the Dollar.

Currency Exchange Risk: Betting against the dollar means holding other currencies, exposing you to fluctuations in exchange rates. If the dollar strengthens relative to those currencies, you could incur losses when converting back to dollars.
Inflation Impact: If the dollar weakens significantly, it can lead to imported inflation as the cost of goods denominated in foreign currencies rises. This can erode purchasing power and lead to higher domestic prices for imported goods.
Interest Rate Differentials: Central banks may adjust interest rates to manage their respective currencies. If interest rates rise in the currencies you’re betting on, it could attract capital inflows and strengthen those currencies further. Conversely, if rates in those currencies fall or remain low, it might weaken them.
Trade Implications: A weaker dollar can make exports more competitive but imports more expensive, potentially impacting trade balances. Conversely, a stronger dollar might make imports cheaper but exports more expensive.
Asset Markets: A weaker dollar could boost asset prices denominated in other currencies, such as commodities or foreign stocks. Conversely, a stronger dollar might put pressure on those assets.
Global Economic Stability: Major shifts in currency valuations can have ripple effects throughout the global economy. It could affect the debt burdens of countries with significant dollar-denominated debt, impact international investments, and influence geopolitical dynamics.
Policy Responses: Central banks and governments may respond to currency movements with policy interventions, such as currency interventions or changes in monetary policy. These responses can have unpredictable effects on currency markets.
Speculative Risks: Betting against the dollar can be speculative and carries risks. Market sentiment and speculative activity can exacerbate currency movements, leading to sharp and unpredictable fluctuations.
Diversification Benefits: Holding assets in a mix of currencies can provide diversification benefits, spreading risk across different economic regions and currencies.
Long-Term Trends: It’s essential to consider long-term structural trends in the global economy, such as shifts in economic growth, demographic changes, technological advancements, and geopolitical developments, which can influence currency valuations over time.

Overall, betting against the dollar in favor of other currencies can offer opportunities for profit, but it’s essential to carefully assess the risks and potential consequences, especially in a dynamic and uncertain economic environment like 2024.

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